"What will be the primary driver of future growth in e-learning; Technology, Content or Applications?" asks Dr. M.S. Mohammed via LinkedIn.

Jeff's Reponse

Ever since the introduction of the iPad and Apple's decision not to support Flash on the iPad and iPhone, the future of Flash has been in question.  For the e-Learning community Flash's future is extremely important.  As a community we have invested heaviliy in creating Flash-based e-learning content.  It's been several years since Apple made that fateful decision and HTML5 still hasn't taken the world by storm.  Likewise the introduction of Android tablets and smart phones that support Flash has help bouy the embattled standard.  If I had a crystal ball I'd tell you if Flash survives or not.  My best guess is it will survive because incumbent standards are extremely difficult to unseat. Especially when the alternative standard doesn't offer dramatic improvements over the incumbent standard.

Below is an excerpt from the LinkedIn discussion. 

LinkedIn Discussion Excerpt

Brian Hendrix ?Are you trying to get Flash to work on mobile platforms like the Ipad? Articulate Storyline lets you embed Flash into a Storyline course. The course will play using the Articulate Mobile Player. There are certain limitations of course (Flash 10 only, 30FPS setting, etc.)

Eventually, I think an Android Mobile Player is planned but no announcement yet.

Graham Isaacs ?Convert to HTML5, optomised for the device real estate.

Brian Hendrix ?I think he's asking what to do with existing Flash content. Converting to HTML5 doesn't work all that well - or at least not yet on the tools I've tried. If you know of something that is effective at converting Flash to HTML5 let us know.

I've tried Wallaby from Adobe but it just isn't quite there yet.
http://labs.adobe.com/technologies/wallaby/

Ray Pastore ?Wait, Flash is dead for elearning? How did you come to this conclusion? What software is available to do what flash does? I ask because eLearning tools such as articulate, etc do NOT do what flash does and neither does HTML5 - they are not even close to as powerful. So those are not options to replace Flash.

If you are talking mobile, flash is one of the best options for publishing to both android and iphone/ipad - at least if you are trying to publish native apps. If I am developing a sophisticated app for the ipad, I would probably use either Flash or Xcode because HTML5 cannot handle it.

Ray Pastore, Blog: http://raypastore.com/wordpress

Brian Hendrix ?One way to overcome having to redevelop the content is to use a browser app that supports Flash in both IOS and on Android. Give Puffin browser a try.

http://www.puffinbrowser.com/

They get around the issue of Flash support in IOS by remotely executing the Flash content on their servers.

Erik Lord ?I hesitate to respond to posts like this with "Flash is dead for eLearning" in the title as it's just inflammatory, if not just wrong.
It would be wise to start developing with different tools for new projects if mobile delivery is a target.
It's certainly valid to assess how to 'convert' existing Flash-based projects to a mobile-friendly version if those projects need to 'go mobile'.

But there's a lot of other considerations there too - what does 'mobile' mean? Just tablets? Then it may be fine to convert the existing Flash projects to an HTML5 version (and likely, at this point, largely 'by hand').

Or does 'mobile' mean smartphone delivery as well? If so, there's an entire redesign process to consider aside from just the authoring/technical aspect (screensize, audience, use-cases, etc).

So to the more valid question, "What to do with so much eLearning content developed in Flash?"
It depends on the requirements. If that content is still only/largely to be 'consumed' on desktops, then why change anything?

If that content indeed needs to be mobile-friendly, what type of mobile? What type of audience? Environment? What type of connectivity? Any LMS/SCORM requirements? TinCan? Are the needs for the training on that platform the same as on a large-screen/desktop device?

Jeff Walter ?Flash is dead? Regardless of the virtues of a new technology, never underestimate the momentum of an incumbent technology.

Graham Isaacs ?Flash is dead in the water, Microsoft is dropping flash support for Windows 8 and it looks like Android will be next to drop Flash. Seems a good opportunity to start offering flash conversion services.

Ray Pastore ?So much misinformation in this discussion. Is anyone here an actual developer?

@Graham, microsoft is not dropping flash support. Please where did you hear that? In fact, the exact opposite is happening. Flash is being shipping with Windows 8 and is fully integrated into IE 10. Not only that but Flash will automatically be updated in Windows updates. Microsoft is going out of its way to ensure flash integration.

Ray Pastore, Blog: http://raypastore.com/wordpress

Kary Dunham ?Hi Ray...maybe he meant Silverlight. {LOL}

I don't think Flash is dead at all and would agree with the assessment that currently there is nothing that can replace it's functionality. Anyone successful at syncing audio with animation with HTML 5?

I was reading a book (sorry can't remember which one) where the author was talking about the upheaval that went about when elearning shifted from a CD based industry to web-based. Everyone pounded their chests and proclaimed that elearning was dead because all the things that was so easily possible with development on a CD, were now pushed into the dark ages.

This sounds very similar to what is happening right now. Obviously technology caught up and eventually elearning was able to deliver some awesome content over the web. But even though I wasn't around for the transition, I'm certain it was very painful and possibly scary for many.

Sounds like a very similar process we're going through right now.

Brian Hendrix ?If I've given out misinformation Ray let me know. :) By the way, I've been developing with Flash since 1996. I think that on desktop platforms that Flash still is irreplaceable. Yes, there are signs that Flash is being dropped on mobile devices but I personally don't see anything viable yet to replace it. HTML5 certainly isn't a complete replacement. That is why I mentioned some work arounds. :)

I was around for the transition from CD to Web - Director and Authorware were still the tools of choice for both at first. Browser plugins allowed both Director and Authorware courses to work on the web. I thought back then that Flash technology (vector animation specifically) should have just been integrated into the existing tools and we would have all been a lot happier. LOL

Tecnologies are in constant flux and it is difficult to know where things are headed. Sometimes companies choose to do away with an old technology just so they can sell you all new "improved" technology. :) I guess we shall see what happens.

Ryan Hoskinson ?@Ray, Could you address the rumor that even Adobe will soon be phasing Flash out of further development in favor of Adobe Edge (HTML5 editor). I don't know that I believe that rumor since every iteration of Flash has had significant improvements to interface and function, but I do recognize that if this were true, the eLearning field will need to change even more rapidly in the next few years...

Ray Pastore ?@Brian, not at all:) Its the whole 'flash is dead', 'convert it to html5' stuff.

@Ryan, I dont really know. My guess would be that it will be integrated with Flash at some point (or dreamweaver) but I really couldnt say which one will be absorbed into the other. HTML5 will eventually have the power to do what Flash does and Adobe is definitely on top of all of the technologies so its worth watching. I would guess that the next version of Flash publishes to HTML5 or some other format rather than flash player. You can already see that with Adobe Air which allows me to publish flash to iphone/ipad. Honestly, my flash apps run better on iphone than my html5 ones do. I also noticed they run better on iOS than on Android because iOS better processes the FPS and my android test device is more powerful. Anyway, I have been telling my students who are trying to be developers that they need to know both Flash and Javascript and that they need to keep up with both:)

Daniel Gimness ?Do you know that you can export out to HTML5 using Flash CS6 and the CreateJS JavaScript toolkit?
http://www.adobe.com/devnet/createjs/articles/using-flash-pro-toolkit-createjs.html

Stephen Ryan ?This is a terrific discussion and I really appreciate the various points-of-view since, as the sole eLearning Developer where I work, I wrestle with this very issue.

All of our courses have either been developed in Flash exclusively or have Flash as a major component. The topic of "Flash is dead" (whether true or not) reached the ears of my director and he got scared of being caught behind the eight ball. It is very reassuring to hear that I am not alone on this issue and that many others also share my point-of-view that Flash is still a valid if not solid development platform.

All courses developed for our enterprise must function on particular browsers; none of which even support HTML 5! I do not see that there is a Flash alternative unless you want pretty boring static web pages.

We also use tools such as Captivate which enable us to create interactive systems training. Of course this publishes to the Flash format as well and I cannot think of how we would do this otherwise without a substantial increase in budget.

Is anyone aware of a viable option to Flash for audio and video on browsers that do not support HTML 5?

Amarpreet Singh ?HTML5 is the only one solution for this.

Graham Isaacs ?@Ray, Apologies It must have been a Freudian slip, am sure I read it on one of the tech news sites. Either way Flash is dead to me, archaic technology that doesnt fit the needs of my customers.

Mark Siegrist ?There is no doubt that Flash is still a vital and important tool, but what about the wrapper (playbars, navigation, etc) in html, and then use html/js templates, some of which may include loading flash elements for voiceover, animations, sims, etc.

This is probably the right way to hedge against the future, in my opinion.

Stephen Ryan ?MSiegrist - The approach that you described of using an HTML solution with Flash for the media, sims and some interactive elements is the solution that I came up with as well.

I am challenging myself on this notion however because our current Flash solution is so effective in terms of reducing the development time. Using a mixed approach will certainly demand a higher level of organization since our Flash template pulls from a single content file.

But it does indeed hedge against the future.

Andrew Kennedy ?I love these FLASH is dead arguments convert to HTML5. How many of you have Flash CS6 and have published directly to iPad yet?

Django Zeaman ?I thought Flash was going to die too...but I'm not so sure any more. Take a look at iSwifter. We just deployed a course in Flash that works great on an iPad using the iSwifter browser app. I was really surprised at the performance and the solution is fairly simple.

There is alot of legacy content out there and no new development tool has jumped into the lead...maybe Flash won't be dying any time soon.

Mark Siegrist ?To me, it's more of an "Adobe is dead' argument. They have consistently jerked eLearning devs around for years. From Authorware to Director to Flash...it's just not a good idea to 'get in bed' with Adobe anymore for mission critical stuff.

Ray Pastore ?@Andrew, I have published a lot to ipad/iphone using flash cs6, even games. They work really well as stand alone apps (even better than on Android imo) but nothing is HTML5 its all Air. As you know, that conversion is horrid to say least:) I would guess that most of the people making the claim that Flash is dead or convert it to HTML5 have not developed in either of these tools. That or they are ISDers who are not developers so they do not like Flash because it requires programming so they want to say its dead so they can push simple tools like articulate (so that they can actually be the designer and developer) - just a guess but I honestly cannot figure out why else they would be claiming such as nothing has the power Flash does at this point.

Ray Pastore, Blog: http://raypastore.com/wordpress

Kary Dunham ?@Ray....agree 100%.

As for the "Flash is dead", I disagree. Nothing comes even close to its capabilities. I personally can't stand Captivate and avoid it whenever possible.

Articulate Storyline has some ability to publish to iPad and HTML5, but don't expect it to be a one-to-one conversion or you'll be sadly disappointed. Not to mention how infuriatingly frustrating it can be to actually develop in when all you keep saying while using it is.... "I wish it would just do __________________(fill in the blank) as easily as Flash!!"

IMHO, we cannot even begin to perceive what is possible and will be a reality in 5 years. So whether or not Flash is dead I think is immaterial. I believe we are just going through some growing pains right now as one side of technology hasn't kept up with the demands of the way it is delivered and published.

But I don't for a minute believe that all the amazing functionality and capabilities of Flash will just be thrown away, lock stock and barrel. At least I certainly hope not.